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In the first half of the day, data on French consumer confidence was released which put pressure on the euro. However, there was no serious selling of the common currency, as the market focused on the decision of the Federal Reserve and the minutes of the meeting.
According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the index of consumer confidence in France in July this year has dropped to 104 points from 108 points in June. Economists expected the figure to remain unchanged.
Favorable support for the index mentioned was received in June. This is when Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election in France. The report also points out concerns about unemployment and inflation, that rose in July this year, which obviously will not please the new head of the state.
Today, the Federal Reserve will have an important role in the market. It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged, but more attention will be given to the plans of the Central Bank to further hike rates against the background of a weakening of inflation. If management prefers to take a wait-and-see attitude then the pressure on the US dollar could resume. The break and return of the EURUSD pair to the level of 1.1670 will lead to the continuation of the upward trend with the update of 1.1710 and 1.1760.
Data on the UK economy had no effect on the British pound during the first half of the day, as it fully coincided with the forecasts of economists.
Several investors and traders feared a larger slowdown and further weak UK economic growth in the second quarter of this year due to low activity in manufacturing and construction. However, the service sector, which is the main driver of growth in the British economy, continues to demonstrate strength, which was partially offset by a slowdown in industry and construction.
According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, UK GDP in the 2nd quarter of this year grew by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. In the 1st quarter, growth was 0.2%. The data was in line with the forecasts of economists.
Compared to the same period of last year, GDP growth in the UK during the second quarter was 1.2% compared with 0.9% in the first quarter.
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, a return to the large resistance level of 1.2040 could benefit the buyers of the British pound, which will resume the upward trend. However, much of it will depend on the market's reaction to the decision of the Federal Reserve and the statements made immediately after that. Closing of the day above a level of 1.3040 will allow it to update the new monthly highs by the end of the week in the area of resistances at 1.3100 and 1.3140.
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