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Over the past week, despite the fact that the market is pretty polychromic, the euro and the pound remained virtually unchanged. The main event of the week was the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Markets. The meeting saw the Fed leaving the refinancing rate unchanged. It was quite expected so the market almost ignored this event. The strongest influence was caused by the words of Janet Yellen, which was said during the subsequent press conference. The head of the Federal Reserve did not disappoint investors. She stated that the issue of raising the refinancing rate would be considered during the December meeting. Of course, when making a decision, the Fed will rely on the state of the labor market, as well as inflation. So the chances for another rate increase this year are quite high. After all, the labor market is in fairly good condition and inflation has resumed growth. However, the effect was short-term with the dollar literally losing all its gains within a day. Although, Mario Draghi was partly to blame. The head of the ECB said that there is no reason to continue the program of quantitative easing after December this year.
In fact, there were no other significant events for the week. The final data on inflation in Europe coincided with a preliminary estimate, and inflation accelerated from 1.3% to 1.5%. Apparently, this was the reason for the statements of Mario Draghi. However, such a result was expected so the market did not pay attention to it. Also, the growth rate of retail sales in the UK accelerated from 1.4% to 2.4%. Despite the clearly positive nature of the data, they also did not have a significant impact on the market.
It's all about the German elections which took place on Sunday. The market was waiting for the results. Of course, no one doubted the victory of Angela Merkel and her CDU / CSU. However, the two most influential parties in Germany, the same CDU / CSU and SPD, received the worst result since 1949. Especially since the SPD announced the transition to the opposition. Because of this, Angela Merkel will now have to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP. All three parties have significant differences on a variety of issues, so the coalition is clearly shaky. The German press has already dubbed it "Jamaica". Moreover, the coalition itself does not seem to be the most reliable so the negotiations on its formation will be extremely tough. Obviously, the CDU / CSU will have to make a number of concessions. In such an uncertain situation, investors will not make hasty decisions. Therefore, the potential for strengthening the euro is rather small.
The macroeconomic calendar for the current week does not spoil us with significant news. The preliminary data on the inflation in Europe is worth paying attention to because it may show further acceleration to 1.6%. Given that these data will come out at the very end of the week when the outlines of the new ruling coalition in Germany may be known, the euro will have many reasons for optimism. However, before that, the euro will remain under pressure as the final data on US GDP in the second quarter would show the acceleration of economic growth from 2.0% to 2.2%. Similar data from the UK would confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 2.0% to 1.7%.
You can also expect a certain reaction to a number of other data. In particular, home sales in the primary market in the US may increase by 3.3% while orders for durable goods may add 1.0%. However, this is about positive news for the dollar. The data on personal incomes and expenses, which should grow by 0.3% and 0.1%, may become negative. Taking into account that the income growth is not ahead of the expense growth, this will be perceived as a signal for a rapid decline in consumer activity. This data will be released on Friday, immediately after the preliminary data on inflation in Europe. The pound has nothing to rejoice for, as a significant reduction in the number of approved applications for mortgages is projected.
In general, the dollar has every chance of strengthening. And only on Friday will it have to give up its position a little. During the week, the EUR/USD pair may fall to 1.1795.
The GBP/USD pair is also waiting for a decline to 1.3395.
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