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There is no noticeable activity in the foreign exchange market as investors expect the release of important data on inflation in the US, which will be published on Thursday and Friday.
After a quite tough rhetoric statements from the head, Janet Yellen, as well as some members, will most likely raise the interest rates again, even before the end of the year at the December meeting. The US dollar received notable support and "rebounded" from the local minimum limit. The market expects the Fed to follow its plans on its monetary policy normalization, although they have to see growth in the inflation first. Thereby, this confirms Yellen's earlier words that it breaks the spring-summer period a temporary phenomenon.
According to the forecast, the growth of prices in production in the US for September could reach 0.4% against the August increase of 0.2%. The annual value of the indicator should also be positive and show an increase to 2.5% from 2.4%. However, the whole attention of the market will be turned to the value of the consumer price index or consumer inflation despite the importance of production inflation figures. It is supposed to add 0.6% in September against its growth of 0.4% in August. The values of the basic indicators including consumer inflation can also show annual growth to 1.8% from 1.7%, and maintain the previous August growth rate of 0.2% for the month of September.
It can be assumed that the data is not disappointing, but, on the contrary, even a slightly exceeded forecasts will become a strong support factor for the U.S. currency. In this case, a renewal of the dollar rally is expected.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair remains in the range of 1.1675 in anticipation of the results in the October meeting of the ECB whereas the future of incentive measures will be discussed. Exceeding the price value of 1.1775 may lead to a local price increase to 1.1825.
The GBP/USD pair was corrected upwards on the wave of closing a part of short positions in anticipation of the release of these UK manufacturing indicators, as well as consumer inflation in the U.S. that will be published on Friday. On this wave, the price may rise to 1.3240, but overall, the price is expected to continue its decline towards 1.2965.
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