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Surprisingly good data on industrial production in Europe helped the euro to withstand the market, in contrast to the pound. The growth rate of industrial production did not slow down, as expected, but accelerated to 3.8%. Moreover, the previous data was revised upwards from 3.2% to 3.6%.
The pound is already seriously becoming cheaper, as data in the US is coming out soon. The main news are producer prices, whose growth rates should accelerate from 2.4% to 2.5%. This removes any doubt as to whether the inflation data will be released tomorrow. If forecasts are justified, then inflation should be accelerated to 2.0%. Consequently, all the concerns of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, as reflected in the text of the minutes of the meeting, are unfounded. In this regard, there is no doubt that in December, the Fed will raise the refinancing rate. In addition, the reduction of primary and repeated applications for unemployment benefits is expected to reach 251 thousand and 1,935 thousand respectively. Given the rather controversial data on the labor market recently provided by the Ministry of Labor, the reduction in the number of applications will somewhat reduce doubts about the prospects for the US economy.
The EUR/USD pair may still fall to 1.1815.
The GBP/USD pair has already fallen in price and confirming the forecasts will justify this decline. In this regard, we should expect consolidation at 1.3120. If the data is at least a little worse than the forecasts then it is worth waiting for the rebound to 1.3210.
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