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The euro managed to return to the highs of last Friday but failed to catch hold of these levels in a pair with the US dollar. The political situation in Germany, associated with the ruling party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, continues to exert pressure.
Over the weekend, it became known that the attempt of Angela Merkel to assemble the ruling coalition of the three German parties failed, which caused large sales of the euro.
In the afternoon, growth was limited by the rhetoric of ECB head Mario Draghi.
Data from the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation were ignored by traders in general. In the first half of the day, the OECD report appeared. It indicated that in the third quarter, the growth of developed economies had slowed but still exceeds the figures of the previous year.
According to the data, the aggregate GDP of 35 member countries of the organization in the third quarter of this year increased by 0.6% compared to the second quarter where growth was 0.8%. The slowdown in growth was due to the overheating of the Japanese economy and also because of the indicators of France and the United States. Compared to the third quarter of last year, GDP grew by 2.6% after growing by 2.4% in the second quarter.
The speech of ECB President Mario Draghi negatively affected the quotations of the euro. Draghi again noted that economic growth in the euro area is strong and has a broad base while the underlying inflationary pressures remain low-key. The head of the ECB paid special attention to the fact that the latest ECB decisions will provide sufficient monetary stimulus.
The ECB also does not see price bubbles in the asset market as their value is slightly different from historically average levels.
According to the Conference Board report, the US leading indicators index for October this year increased by 1.2% while the index of lagging US indicators increased by 0.2%. The index of synchronous indicators of the USA showed an increase in October by 0.3%.
As for the technical picture, it has slightly changed compared to the morning forecast.
For the development of the situation in favor of buyers of risky assets, it is necessary for the EURUSD pair to get hold of the intermediate level of 1.1760, which will allow us to return to the test of 1.1800 once again with the expectation of updating to 1.1860 by the middle of the week.
If the pressure continues, the repeated testing of 1.1725 can easily lead to the growth of short positions in the euro and its collapse to the areas of 1.1680 and 1.1640.
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