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EUR/USD, GBP/USD
On Tuesday, there were no new data on the eurozone, with the exception that Angela Merkel spoke out against the option of ruling in a minority government, and that re-elections are the only opportunity to theoretically solve the government crisis. Certainly, there is a "fire" option - the choice of the Chancellor from among the deputies of the Bundestag. The euro did not change as much in terms of its price. The British pound changed sharply on mixed data. Net borrowings of the public sector in October amounted to 7.5 billion pounds against the forecast of 6.6 billion and 4.4 billion in September. The CBI's balance of production orders in the UK increased in November from -2 to 17, with expectations at 3. This morning, the pound added 15 points, likely due to the cabinet's approval of increasing the UK's financial offer to the EU for the Brexit divorce bill to 40 billion euros, which "should" speed up the negotiation process.
Today, the focus of investors' attention is shifting towards the United States. The volume of orders for durable goods in October is expected to increase by 0.4%, the base order index (excluding transport) is also expected to grow by 0.4%. The final estimate of consumer confidence for the current month may increase from 97.8 to 98.2. The number of applications for unemployment benefits is projected at 241 thousand against 249 thousand previously. At 18:00 London time, the minutes will be published from the last FOMC meeting of the Fed. On Thursday, it is a holiday in the US, but also tomorrow the ECB minutes will be released. As investors intend to link these three events, it is difficult to assess. It appears that in order to maintain the dollar's advantage on the imminent reduction of the ECB's balance, the Fed should support a moderately aggressive background of monetary policy strengthening. We will see this today.
We are waiting for the euro at 1.1670 and below at 1.1580. The Pound sterling is anticipated for 1.3080.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar continues to observe European events and, following the example of European currencies, was slightly changed on Tuesday. This morning, it rose with the pound, adding 15 points. Such cautious behavior of the "Aussie" was not disrupted despite the minutes of the RBA meeting on November 7. The RBA noted fears for economic growth both in general and for the third quarter in particular; The growth of production, wages, domestic consumption and inflation remains subdued. One of the reasons for this is that the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, called the reluctance of employers to raise wages. Today, positive news came out: completed construction work in the third quarter increased by 15.7% while anticipating for -2.3%. The index of leading economic indicators from MI (as a sum of 9 indicators) in October increased by 0.1%. During the Asian session, the "Aussie" was down 10 points.
The Australian commodities market is under pressure: iron ore -1.5% (62.47 dollars per tonne), coal -0.4% ($ 95 per tonne), natural gas -1.01%, non-ferrous metals are traded mixed. We are waiting for the AUD/USD pair at 0.7495 and 0.7450.
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