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The publication of UK inflation data yesterday slightly impressed investors. Although inflation accelerated from 3.0% to 3.1%, it did not bring an impact to the pound, since the refinancing rate of 0.5% such inflation causes too many questions. But the market sharply increased when the producer prices data in the United States came out. The rate of producer price growth accelerated from 2.8% to 3.1%, removing all doubts with regards to Fed's decision that will take today. After a while, the dollar began to weaken and it is worth paying attention to the yield of US government debt securities, which continues to go up due to declining demand. Investors are confident that the Fed will raise the refinancing rate today from 1.25% to 1.50%, and then the yield of bonds will inevitably grow. Hence, it seems insignificant to buy bonds today, if the yield will be higher tomorrow.
Today, the marathon of board meetings of the world's largest central banks begins, therefore no other data has almost no significance. There is almost no doubt that the Fed will raise the refinancing rate to 1.5% today. Moreover, the inflation data will come out shortly before the announcement of the results of the meeting. The inflation figures should show growth from 2.0% to 2.2%, which could further strengthen the growth of the dollar. In turn, European statistics can slightly mitigate the consequences for the pound and the euro. In the United Kingdom, unemployment is expected to fall from 4.3% to 4.2%, and the growth rate of industrial production in Europe should accelerate from 3.3% to 3.5%.
The euro/dollar pair will decline to 1.1650 by the end of the day.
The pound/dollar pair may close the day at 1.3225.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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