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The past week was remarkably calm enough, despite the final meetings of the four largest central banks in the world, which voiced their monetary policy and presented their plans for the future.
Markets highly anticipated the meetings of the Fed and the ECB. They wanted to hear not only the decision of the US Central Bank to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, but also the forecasts for monetary policy for the next three years. As a whole, the result was expected - this led to profit-taking on the dollar, which increased its decline on the wave of commentary by J. Yellen that consumer inflation may get stuck for a long time below the target level of 2.0%. However, what was important and ignored by investors is the expectation of an increase in GDP growth, the latest figures for which will be published this week.
From the ECB, the markets hoped to hear something new about the prospects for changing the course of monetary policy against the background of an increase in the consumer price index. However, the regulator and its head M. Draghi were "adamant" in their views, which were no different from statements made in October. On this wave, the single currency was adjusted downwards after previous attempts on Wednesday to grow.
The situation surrounding Brexit talks was also quite interesting during the two-day EU summit. However, it failed to bring final agreements, leaving the uncertainty factor to extend until Tuesday, when the next meeting of British Prime Minister T. May and representatives of the EU is planned to take place. Against the background of the lack of progress in the negotiations, the British currency lost 0.82% against the US dollar on Friday, and 0.52% by the end of the week. This was the most noticeable drop since November 2 of this year. The sterling is now affected only by the situation associated with the withdrawal of Britain from the EU - and nothing more. The results of the meeting of the Bank of England were completely ignored.
In general, watching the currency market, we can say that by the end of this year it will continue to remain in the "outset" until the position of the major players that are moving the market regarding the prospects for the impact of tax reform in the US on financial markets becomes clear.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair, most likely, will remain in the side range on the eve of the Christmas holidays and the release of the final draft of the tax code in the United States. We consider it necessary to sell the pair on a growth from 1.1800 with a potential target of 1.1730.
The GBPUSD pair will likely remain in the range on Monday on the wave of news waiting for Brexit talks. We believe that the pair on the growth should be sold, trading in the range of 1.3300-1.3465.
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