10.01.201805:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Good data on the labor market did not help the euro

Good data on industrial production in Germany, as well as on the labor market in the euro area, did not provide the expected support to the European currency, which continued to decline in Tuesday's trading against the US dollar. The single currency was affected by discussions related to the increased likelihood of verbal intervention from the European Central Bank.

Let me remind you that yesterday there were rumors that the ECB could opt for an intervention in order to weaken the current high rate of the European currency, thus preventing the fall in economic growth rates and the decline in the trade surplus due to the appreciation of exports.

In the first half of the day, data showed that industrial production in Germany in November 2017 increased by 3.4% compared with October, significantly exceeding the forecasts of economists. Compared to the same period in 2016, production increased by 5.6%. Economists had expected that in November 2017 industrial production in Germany would grow by only 1.9%.

Production in the manufacturing industry of Germany in November increased by 4.3%, and in construction by 1.5%.

As expected, in 2017 the labor market in the euro area continued to strengthen.

According to the report of the statistics agency, the unemployment rate in the euro area in November 2017 decreased and amounted to 8.7% against 8.8% in October. The increase was 107,000 jobs.

Regardless, some experts believe that an overly early winding up of the bond repurchase program by the European Central Bank could negatively affect the main factors that positively affect the euro area economy, which will lead to a slowdown in the decline in the unemployment rate. However, this forecast does not affect the first half of 2018, as, according to the results of the December survey of manufacturing companies, it is expected to increase the rate of hiring of labor.

On Tuesday, it was also announced that France's trade deficit in November increased. This happened due to the reduction of energy exports and transport equipment.

Thus, according to the report of the French government, the foreign trade deficit in November 2017 amounted to 5.7 billion euros against 5.3 billion euros in October. The current account deficit in the balance of payments in November was 3.3 billion euros against 2.6 billion euros in October.

The British pound also continued to decline against the US dollar after the release of data from the British Retail Consortium. Thus, retail sales excluding volatile categories of goods in the 4th quarter of last year decreased by 1.9%, compared to the same period in 2016, the fall was 1.4%.