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The week ended on the foreign exchange market quite calmly after a noticeable weakening of the dollar at the beginning of this year. Starting last Tuesday, investors began to record earlier profits on the wave of awaited news from the ECB and the Central Bank of Japan, whose monetary policy meetings will take place this week.
Note that on Tuesday, there will be a meeting of the Central Bank of Japan while on January 25, the ECB will make a decision on monetary policy. Now there is an opinion on the markets that is prevalent. This means that both the European Central Bank and the Japanese regulator can give a clear signal indicating that the coming year will be a turning point in their assessments of future monetary rates. The ECB is waiting for the termination of incentive measures. Perhaps it can occur even in June. The Japanese bank is expected to continue its strict reduction of the volume of government bonds purchases.
However, there are reasonable questions that need to be answered. Are the two largest world central banks really going to take such drastic measures? Is the combined economy of the eurozone and the Japanese countries ready for this?
It's no secret that the risk of dumping into the deflation pit during the 2008-09 crisis scared the local authorities, which was the reason for the beginning of unprecedented measures to stimulate the economies following the Fed. However at the moment, Japan is still marked by a low level of inflation on the wave of economic growth in the eurozone. In Japan, it is generally near the zero mark at only 0.6%
In our opinion, the most likely option for the outcome of the meetings of both the ECB and the Central Bank of Japan may be a statement of successful economic growth. However, the possibility of changing the monetary rates will be very carefully declared. It may be not only for the growth of the economies but also for inflation. It is likely that such a result of the meeting will put pressure on the euro and the yen.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair remains in the narrow range of 1.2165-1.2300 amid expectations of the investors of the ECB meeting, which will be held on January 25. It is most likely that the pair will continue to consolidate in this range.
The USDJPY pair also consolidates in the range of 110.35-111.30 due to the expected outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank of Japan, which will be held on Tuesday. It is most likely that it will remain here until the result of the meeting. Any signal that the regulator will not conduct an aggressive reduction in incentive measures will lead to an increase in the pair.
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