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The strong growth of the Japanese yen, which is observed recently, seriously worried the Governor of the Bank of Japan again, who made a number of statements today.
Recently, the demand for the Japanese yen has grown significantly after the collapse of the US stock market, which began in early February this year. The Japanese yen acts as a safe haven with gold, which is less demanding.
The European currency is also not suitable for the role of a safe haven, since recently it is a very volatile asset against the backdrop of possible changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Also, there is no serious confidence in the US dollar after the measures taken by the administration of the US President Donald Trump on tax legislation, which so far led only to an increase in the budget deficit.
Let me remind you that, according to the report of the US Treasury, the budget deficit from October 2017 to January 2018 amounted to 176 billion US dollars, which is 11% more compared to the same period last year. The new tax reform will lead to an even greater reduction in revenues, amounting to $ 1.5 trillion.
The strong growth of the yen could harm the national economy and seriously affect the export, and especially inflation.
In his speech, Kuroda, the bank manager of Japan, said that he would persistently continue the current mitigation policy and would continue buying ETFs to achieve the target inflation rate of 2%. He also pointed out that he will closely monitor possible side effects of ETF purchases.
As I noted above, Kuroda is also seriously concerned about fluctuations in the markets, saying that while it continues to closely monitor them, hinting, therefore, on the possibility of non-verbal intervention from the Bank of Japan, as the current situation in the markets can seriously affect the economy and prices.
According to Kuroda, Japan's fundamental economic performance and corporate profits remain strong.
Despite this, his comments had no effect.
As for the technical picture of the USD / JPY pair, the situation is indeed very serious.
Now, the third test of a large support area in the 107.50-108.50 area is taking place on the market, the breakthrough of which can seriously change the alignment of forces, which is contrary to the plans of the Japanese government.
The demolition of the above support area will lead the yen to the levels of 2016 in the support area at 105 and 102 yen.
If the area of 107.50-108.50 still stands under the pressure of sellers, then you can expect to rebound to the middle of the channel around 111.70.
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