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Last week, the pair reached the monthly short-term fault of 1.2690-1.2647, which led to an increase in supply and a depreciation rate. The upward movement is a medium-term momentum, therefore short transactions should be fixed in small parts.
Medium-term plan.
The upward movement is a medium-term impulse, so the decline is corrective. The stoppage of growth was due to the test of the monthly short-term fault of February 1.2690-1.2647. The medium-term goal of correction is the weekly short-term fault 1.2469-1.2448. While the pair is trading above this zone, updating the monthly maximum will be the most likely outcome. Within the specified zone, the most favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument are located. In the case of repeated test of a monthly short-term fault, it is necessary to record long positions, opening this week.
An alternative model will develop if the pair can begin to grow from current grades. This will allow to consider the test of the weekly short-term fault of 1.2701-1.2680, which will require the fixation of purchases.
Intraday plan.
On the third day, the main support zone for the NCP 1/2 1.2570-1.2561 is tested. While the pair does not consolidate below this zone, the downward movement will remain corrective. The goal of growth remains the weekly short-term fault of 1.2701-1.2680. If today's US session closes below the level of 1.2561, then it will allow tomorrow to look for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument, whose goal will be a weekly short-term fault of 1.2469-1.2448, which will determine the fate of the last medium-term impulse.
The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
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