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EUR / USD
After a long period of time, the single European is tired of growing. On Wednesday, on a neutral news background, the single currency gained 6 points only. This morning, the euro is trading near the closing level of Tuesday. The eurozone's GDP for the fourth quarter did not change on its final estimate and amounted to 0.6% at an annual rate of 2.7%. For the third quarter, the growth was revised upward from 0.6% to 0.7%. France's trade balance for January fell from -3.5 billion euros to -5.6 billion, with an expectation of -3.7 billion euros. Also, the US trade balance came in weaker than the forecast, although not so critical at -56.6 billion dollars against the forecast of -55.1 billion. The final estimate for labor costs in for the fourth quarter increased by 2.5% against 2.0% in the third quarter, with the forecast of 2.1%.
Today, the focus will be on the ECB's monetary policy decision and the accompanying conference of its president, Mario Draghi. The forecasts of the market will converge in one, stating the ECB will take into account the problems of the Italian elections and will not make any harsh statements. But some investors believe that this will be a soft tone while others thinks that this will be somewhat a firm tone, which is the same reason regarding the outcome of Italian elections. These positions will place further pressure from the Fed to strengthen the dollar and the ECB will have confrontation with the US Central Bank. As a result, a soft tone from Mario Draghi can be expected, the standard principles about the incentives reduction and uncertainty in the world economy. This can be emphasized in connection with the threat of trade wars, and the reason even for the extension of incentives "if necessary." In other words, the ECB is not interested in influencing the growth of the euro.
We are expecting for the decline of the single currency to 1.2295 and further to the range of 1.2210 / 30.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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