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On Thursday, these are the expected strong news:
- 11.45 London time. EUR, the deposit rate. The expected value is -0.4% compared to the previous value of -0.4%;
- 11.45 London time. EUR, the decision on the interest rate (Mar.), The expected value is 0.00% compared the previous value of 0.00%;
- 12.30 London time. EUR, ECB press conference
Trend analysis (Figure 1)
On Wednesday, the market moved in the sideways channel as they for Thursday's interest rates. Then, on Thursday the market may move down prior to the news. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Indicator analysis on the daily schedule (Figure 2).
The system of ADX indicators (Figure 2).
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators.
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13).
The linear part of the MACD indicator.
Fast line (signal) - a line of white color.
The slow line (main line) is the blue line.
The result for the linear part of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Histogram of the MACD indicator.
Histogram - columns of black color.
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is an upward trend.
Overall: the MACD indicator on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
Middle lines of the EMA.
The daily chart uses the following midlines.
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow).
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow).
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (the first shadow and trend).
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (trend).
21 middle EMA line - the color is brown (trend).
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) moved up, is above the 13th EMA midline (yellow) - the signal of the top work.
21, the middle EMA line, moving upwards, is below the 13th EMA midline, amplifying the signals of the upper work.
The bottom line: the EMA middle line system on the daily chart gives an upward trend.
The probability distribution of the indicators is as follows:
the average EMA lines are 24% up;
The indicator of the MACD (linear part) - 38% up,
the MACD indicator (histogram) is 38% higher.
The result of the indicator analysis: the price will have an upward trend.
Fig. 2 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up (blue dotted line);
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - down;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly schedule - down.
General conclusion.
On Thursday, the market will most likely move up because of the news. The first goal is the level of 1.2446 in the upper fractal.
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