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News from China's local Ministry of Economy, which were voiced in the news reports, again indicate that the talks between Beijing and Washington, which investors are hoping for, have not yet yielded results.
In fact, the Ministry of Economy of China today made it clear that it will not "hesitate to pay for any price" for protecting its commercial interests in the event of the introduction of the US new import duties. Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump, in his unchanged manner, once again threatened China, reporting the probability of imposing new trade duties for an additional $100 billion. It should be reminded that a new import duty was previously proposed in the total amount of $50 billion. In fact, it turns out that the Chinese do not want to be led by Washington, which does not accept any compromises, at least right now.
Against the background of these news in Europe, the stock market is under pressure, and futures for major US stock indices are losing around 1.0%. But the avalanche of their decline was not observed, after the chief adviser of Trump on the economy, L. Kadlow said that these measures may not be accepted.
Today investors' attention, on the one hand, is still focused on the topic of the US-China trade war, but also the publication of data on the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy and the figures for the average hourly wage will also play an important role. According to the median forecast, an increase in new jobs is expected to be 193,000, and an increase in the average hourly wage at 0.3%.
It can be assumed that the reaction against the dollar will be positive if the number of new jobs increases by 200,000, and the average hourly wage will not be less than 0.3%. Against this background, the rate of the US currency may grow significantly against all major currencies, but if the figures turn out to be weaker, this will definitely lead to a fall in the dollar. Today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak. From it, market players will also try to find out whether there will be any changes in monetary policy amid the trade war between the states and China.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair is consolidating above 1.2235 in anticipation of publication of data on employment in the US. If they turn out to be negative, then the pair can grow to 1.2335. At the same time, positive news for the dollar will put pressure on the pair, and it may fall to 1.2200 with the prospect of a decline to 1.2160.
The USDJPY pair is trading above the 107.15 level. Strong data from the US will prompt it to grow to 108.25. But if they are weaker, then we should expect a local price decrease to 106.50.
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