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The good data that came out yesterday afternoon in the US economy managed to provide only temporary support to the US dollar, which continued to decline against risky assets amid easing the aggravation of the military conflict in the Middle East.
According to the data, Americans spent more in March this year, which will certainly provide good support to the country's economy. So, retail sales in the US in March grew significantly after a slight decline at the beginning of the year.
According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, retail sales grew by 0.6% compared to the previous month, while economists had expected a growth of 0.3%. It is important to note that in February, sales decreased by 0.1% compared to January.
As noted in the ministry, a good support for sales has had a demand for cars. Excluding sales of cars and gasoline, retail sales in March rose by 0.3%. In comparison with the same period of the previous year, sales in the first quarter of this year increased by 4.1%.
Weak growth in business activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York did not benefit the buyers of the US dollar. As noted in the report, the Fed's leading manufacturing index in New York, declined to 15.8 points for the month of April 2018, compared to 22.5 points in March. Economists had expected the production index to be at 19.1 points. The index of expectations regarding the conditions for doing business fell to 18.3 points.
Speech representative Fed-Minneapolis Neel Kashkari was perceived by the market as quite cold.
Kashkari is confident that fiscal stimulus will support the Fed's plans to gradually raise rates. Despite the fact that many companies are more optimistic about tax cuts, they remain cautious because now they have concerns about US trade policies, especially regarding China and Europe.
According to the chairman of the Fed-Minneapolis, a reduction in taxes, like a reduction in costs, can significantly change the trajectory of economic growth.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the demand for the euro will remain at the beginning of the week, but much will depend on today's data on Germany, as well as on the performance of other representatives of the Fed.
To maintain an upward momentum, buyers of risky assets need to get to the resistance level of 1.2415, which will make new monthly highs in the area of 1.2450 and 1.2480 achievable.
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