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Inflation in Britain for the month of March continued to decline, as evidenced by the publication of Wednesday's economic statistics. The unexpectedly weak data led to a sharp drop in the sterling rate on the Forex currency market and lowered expectations that the Bank of England will actively raise interest rates this year.
The values of consumer inflation in annual terms are already declining for a second month in a row after a short-term stabilization earlier this year in Britain. The consumer price index (CPI) fell in March to 2.5% from 2.7%. Its monthly value showed a slight upward trend of 0.1% against a rather good growth in February by 0.4%.
On the back of these statistics, the sterling sharply went down against the major currencies and lost more than one percent against the dollar. And although it then compensated for a part of its losses, a decrease in the expectation of higher rates in the near future could lead to the fact that the fall of the British currency could continue. And here, even the solution of the crisis of the country's exit from the European Union, which was hoped for by the sterling's growth in recent months, may not even help it.
Assessing the prospects for the pound, it can be assumed that the Bank of England is unlikely to decide in the current situation to continue the cycle of raising interest rates. It is most likely that they will want to first make sure that the fall in the consumer price index is over.
In addition to the British economic statistics, there were interesting data on consumer inflation in the euro area, which came out contradictory and failed to exert pressure on the euro quotes.
In accordance with the published figures for consumer inflation in the euro area, the value of the index rose sharply in March, by 1.0%, compared to a 0.2% rise in February. The annual value, on the contrary, fell to 1.3% from 1.4%. Just as in the case of the Bank of England, the ECB may face the problem of continuing braking inflation, which means it can force it to continue supporting the European economy in September and prolong the QE program until the end of this year.
Forecast of the day:
The GBPUSD pair is trading above the level of 1.4185. If the data on retail sales in Britain are weak, the pair may continue to fall to 1.4100 after overcoming the 1.4185 mark.
The USDCAD pair "lies" at 1.2620. If oil quotes are corrected today, we should expect a local price increase to 1.2700 or even to 1.2735.
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