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The pound was badly damaged, but, unlike the single European currency, it should not be blamed for this by the mass media disseminating various rumors, but its own statistics. Despite the fact that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, and the growth rate of wages accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8%, investors were alarmed by the fact that the growth rates of wages with premiums remained unchanged. It is important for investors that wages with premiums grow faster than without them. This, of course, does not guarantee the growth of labor productivity but guarantees a higher return on investment. Well, then we contemplated extremely negative data on the British economy. Inflation slowed from 2.7% to 2.5%, while retail sales slowed from 1.5% to 1.1%. But even without this, the pound had few reasons for growth, given the American statistics. In particular, the growth rate of retail sales accelerated from 4.1% to 4.5%, although commercial inventories increased by 0.6%. The growth rate of industrial production slowed from 4.4% to 4.3%, but this was leveled by the data on construction. So, the number of issued construction permits increased by 2.5%, and the construction projects started by 1.9%.
This week in the UK should pay attention only to preliminary data on GDP for the first quarter. Most likely, the pace of economic growth will remain the same, and given the forecasts for the US economy, this should be regarded as positive news.
As for the United States, preliminary data on business activity indices are likely to show an increase in the index in services and a decline in the manufacturing sector. Thus, as in Europe, the composite index should remain unchanged. Sales of housing on the secondary market may increase by 0.2%, while on the primary market it increases by 1.9%. Equally important is the fact that the growth in 1,0% of orders for durable goods is projected. But, despite all this positive, it's too early to rejoice in the dollar, as the first GDP estimate for the first quarter should show a slowdown in economic growth.
The pound is prompted by a correction, and most likely Friday's GDP data for the United Kingdom and the United States will be the trigger that will trigger this process. So almost all the week the market will wait, and at the very end of it, the pound / dollar pair will rush to 1.4100.
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