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GBP / USD
Under the influence of external factors, the British pound rose by 60 points yesterday, but it almost returned to its starting position in the second half of the day due to pressure of good US economic indicators and the expected positive US labor data. The dollar index was down to 0.1% yesterday, and the USDX growth is closing yesterday's decline this morning. Commodity markets are falling ahead the growth of the dollar. So yesterday, the oil fell by 1.66%, and today it loses 0.24% in the Asian session. The pound loses more than 30 points.
The number of issued mortgages in the UK for April according to yesterday's release showed a decrease from 63 thousand to 62 thousand. The net volume of new loans to individuals showed an increase from 4.4 billion pounds (revised to increase from 4.2 billion) up to 5.7 billion pounds with the expectation of 5.2 billion pounds. Such a sharp jump in the volume of loans against the background of declining mortgage activity signals a hidden problems in the consumer sector and the credibility of the population, although the record shows 11 billion pounds sterling before the 2008 crisis, hence, there is still plenty of time to grow.
Today, the Manufacturing PMI will be released in May with a forecast at 53.5 against 53.9 earlier. The US expects strong performance in labor and manufacturing PMI. Non-Farm Employment Change for May is expected at 189 thousand against 164 thousand in April. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. The average hourly wage is expected to grow by 0.2%. The forecast for Manufacturing PMI from the ISM Institute is 58.3 against 57.3 in April.
We are waiting for the decline of the British pound in the range of 1.3135 / 65 and further in the range of 1.3030 / 40.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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