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Gradually, investors are beginning to shift their attention to the upcoming meetings of the world's largest central banks - the Fed and the ECB, which will take place next week, and from which they expect important actions, or at least hints at notable changes in monetary policy.
There are still hopes that the Fed will not only raise interest rates, which has already been taken into account in the value of many assets, but will also issue a positive assessment of the state of the economy and the prospects for continuing inflationary pressures will in fact signal a high probability of a fourth interest rate increase before the end of this year. If this is the case, the US currency will undoubtedly receive another reason for continuing growth relative to the major currencies, the factor of trade wars and the fear that this could cause the global economic slowdown will have a negative impact on the exchange rates of emerging economies.
A survey conducted by the WSJ showed that economists expect four increases in rates in the US and an increase in inflationary pressures. As for our opinion, we believe that, given the positive dynamics of economic growth, obvious measures of protectionism on the part of the government, inflation will only gain support in the future, which means that the current rate of increase in the cost of borrowing is clearly lagging behind the needed pace. Therefore, if the process of increasing inflation continues, then the reality of increasing rates one more time this year is relevant. Proceeding from this, the US dollar can be supported after the meeting.
Regarding the impact of the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy, we note that under the conditions of a trade war with the states the regulator is likely to take a wait-and-see attitude, but will signal that the decision to end incentive measures in September this year will be debated at the next meeting. If this is true, then we expect the continuation of the local depreciation of the euro in the Forex market, and most noticeably in relation to the US dollar.
Forecast of the day:
EURUSD fell below 1.1790 on a wave of profit-taking before the ECB meeting next week. It is likely that this will be the basis for its limited decline to 1.1715 within the short-term uptrend.
The AUDUSD fell below 0.7600 in the wake of the negative outlook for trade wars and expectations for a slowdown in the world economy and, as a consequence, consumption of metals, which are a significant part of Australia's exports. Given this, we can assume that the pair will continue to decline to 0.7515.
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