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The US dollar, despite a slight decrease in the degree of tension in the markets, primarily due to the lack of new threats to increase customs duties from D. Trump, receives support. And it looks like this process will continue, as it is supported by a number of important reasons of a fundamental nature.
Reduced geopolitical tensions have helped the stock markets to calm down somewhat, but this is hardly the end of the story associated with trade wars. The desire of the US President to change the balance of trade between the US and the countries that trade with them by force is frightening the markets, as it is the basis for the likely slowdown in global economic growth. At the same time, economic isolation of the US threatens with a rise in prices for raw materials and goods, which will push the Fed to raise interest rates more actively. In addition, once again there has been a clear divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and other world central banks. The US promises to continue to raise rates, and they are unlikely to be solved in the conditions of trade wars and the risk of a slowdown in economic growth in these countries. An additional supporting factor for the dollar is also the expectation of investors that in the conditions of trade wars, America will suffer significantly less. That's why the dollar is in demand.
But back to the main event of today. Market attention will be focused on the results of the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy. It is expected that the key interest rate will remain at the same level, 0.50%, as well as the volume of asset repurchase in the amount of 435 billion pounds.
Assessing the likely outcome of the meeting, we believe that the British regulator will not only not dare to change its monetary rate in the direction of continuing to raise rates due to the slowdown of inflationary pressure and economic growth, as well as uncertainty of the solution to the problem of the country's exit from the EU, but also will make it clear that if the outcome of the meeting will be such a scenario, we should expect a continued decline in the sterling in the foreign exchange markets, and primarily against the US dollar.
Forecast of the day:
The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure in anticipation of the outcome of the Bank of England meeting. We believe that the pair will continue to fall to 1.3035, securing below 1.3145.
The NZDUSD pair may adjust upwards after falling against the background of the publication of data on new Zealand GDP, which showed its slowdown. It can grow to 0.6855 or even to 0.6875. But we believe that from these marks it is necessary to sell it with a local target of 0.6775.
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