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The previous day's decline in the rate did not allow it to reach the target zone of NKZ 1/2 1.2953-1.2941, which increases the probability of resuming the downward movement and updating the July low.
Yesterday's closing of the US session occurred below the first resistance of the NKZ 1/4 1.3027-1.3021. If the pair continues to trade below the specified zone, then it will be necessary to search for a pattern for selling, since the probability of a recurrence of the fall is 70%. In case of a breakdown and consolidation of the above mentioned zone, the next growth target will be the NKZ 1/2 1.2097-1.3085, where the fate of the current stage of the bearish momentum will be determined. Closing of the current week's trades below the specified zone will allow to consider selling in order to update the July low.
It is important to note that the downward movement remains a medium-term momentum, so you should not hurry with purchases. Reversal models imply a way out of the position of a large number of bears and only the second phase is an impulse in the opposite direction, which allows you to search for favorable prices after confirmation.
The formation of the reversal model will require today's closing of the US session to be above the level of 1.3097. This will cancel the option with the update of the July low and will allow you to search for purchases at the beginning of next week. The growth target will be the weekly short-term target of 1.3239-1.3213, the achievement of which will bring the movement into the flat phase. The first signs of demand are already there, but for profitable purchases from the current levels this is not enough. Sales from the current levels look more attractive, but it requires the formation of a pattern in order to be able to set a stop, which will be less than the potential profit by three times.
Daytime CP is the day control area. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the last year.
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