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Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed and large-scale sales in the global bond market allowed gold to grope for the ground. After the worst withdrawal of funds from specialized exchange funds in June (- $ 2 billion) in July July, ETF was marked by the best daily inflow of 5.4 tonnes in the last few weeks. And let the US administration argue that the mountain stands for the independence of the Central Bank, changing the worldview of investors can be expensive for the US dollar. It was the strengthening of the USD index that became the main headache of bulls for XAU / USD in April-July.
The divergence in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the central banks-competitors, the rapid growth of US GDP under the influence of fiscal stimulus, strong positions of the S & P 500 and attractive rates of the US debt market helped strengthen the dollar. Gold was marked by the opposite dynamics on the background of speculators netting short positions to record highs since the beginning of the accounting in 2006. They were blown up for five consecutive weeks, so do not be surprised at the sharp rise of XAU / USD under the influence of the angry rhetoric of Donald Trump. Hedge funds simply began to record profits.
Dynamics of speculative positions on gold
It is curious that the precious metal is trying to find the ground under the conditions of rising rates on the global debt market. Traditionally, the factor of raising the real yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is a bearish driver for the analyzed asset, but at the same time, there is simultaneous growth. What's the matter? Raising rates contributed to rumors about the normalization of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. As a result, investors from the Land of the Rising Sun began to withdraw from foreign assets, including Treasury. The latter took the glory from gold, sensitively reacting to the development of the situation around trade wars. I believe that the precious metal was reminded of its status as an asylum-seeker, which became for him a kind of saving straw.
What's next? Much will depend on investors' interest in the US dollar. He feels confident against expectations of more than 4% of GDP growth in the second quarter, however, once the statistics are published, the principle "buy on the rumor, sell on facts" can work out. The problem is that the competitors of the "American" look weak. After a slight acceleration in June, business activity in the euro area resumed its decline in July. The ECB adheres to an ultra-soft monetary policy and does not intend to raise rates earlier than September 2019. Whatever the "bears" for USD / JPY are expecting at the start of normalization, the inability of Japanese inflation to reach a target is a good reason for BoB's pigeon rhetoric. The pound is under the pressure of the risks around Brexit. As a result, the dollar looks almost the only reasonable option for capital application in Forex.
Technically, after reaching a target of 88.6% for the "Shark" pattern, the "bulls" had the opportunity for a counterattack in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave.
Gold, the daily chart
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