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EUR / USD pair
Yesterday, the US dollar still continued to weaken, but in today's Asian session, its growth blocked yesterday's decline. The growth of the euro was never able to reach the red balance line on the daily chart but the price also did not return under the trend line. Only the signal line of the oscillator Marlin managed to return to the zone of negative numbers, which signals the exhaustion of the upward movement. But in fact, this is just a sign, the price should go under the indicator trend line in order to form a complete reversal trend below 1.1452. Then, the goals 1.1300 and 1.1196 will be reopened.
On the 4-hour chart, the oscillator Marlin formed the third vertex. The price worked out the target range of 1.1613 / 45 and has the potential for an attack on 1.1452, where the MACD line and the balance line converge at this time. Thus, the level of 1.1452 is the key for a further price reduction.
Today, there are business activity estimates for the euro area in August. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 55.1 points while Services PMI could grow to 54.4 from 54.2. Minutes will be published from the last meeting of the ECB at 11.30 London time. It is of interest to have a discussion on monetary policy, which with more probability, we will not see the expected decrease of US PMI indicators. The forecast for Manufacturing PMI is 55.1 against 55.3 in July. On the other hand, the Services PMI 55.9 against 56.0 in the same period. Sales of new homes in the US for July are expected to increase from 631 thousand to 643 thousand, but yesterday's data on sales of secondary housing stating 5.34 million against the forecast of 5.40 million do not give optimism to today's data.
In the end, we expect that the price attack on the level of 1.1452 will take place no earlier than tomorrow evening when Jackson Hole will act as Jerome Powell. His speech should be strong enough to overshadow the likely negative from orders for durable goods for July, which is expected to decline by -0.7%.
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