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EUR / USD
On Friday, a strong decline in the British pound did not allow the euro to realize the potential for testing the upper levels (1.1832, 1.1900), and after working out the upper limit of the local channel on the four-hour chart, the price returned to a significant level of 1.1750. Accordingly, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the upper boundary of the indicated corridor.
In connection with the importance of the fundamental reasons for the market decline (Theresa May said that the negotiations on Brexit are deadlocked). We are now considering a decreasing scenario without the price coming out of the local channel for H4, because already on Wednesday, the Fed will raise the rate to 100% with a 100% probability. To disperse the decline, the price is enough to get out of this channel down and consolidate under the Kruzenshtern line (1.1680). In this case, the goal is to support the downlink of the channel on daily at around 1.1510. Approximately to it, the indicator line of a trend moves on a daily scale (blue).
The main danger for the bearish scenario comes from the Fed itself. Since investors do not doubt raising the rate, for the reliability of their medium-term prospects, they hope to strengthen hawk rhetoric as the most accompanying statement and economic forecasts, and the head of the Central Bank, Jerome Powell. Powell has not yet been seen in playing along with the market, and the situation is far from cloudless. The debt of the United States on the 20th day was 21.467 trillion dollars, the yield of 10-year government bonds the third day holds above 3.0%, the increase in yield will increase the cost of debt servicing. And at some point, the Fed should start preparing markets to slow the rate of rate hikes. Investors pledge 2 rate increases next year with a probability of 100%. They are clearly ahead of the forecasts of the Fed itself (3.5% in 2019), and the Fed, in turn, may even question its own forecast due to the vulnerability of the United States in trade wars. Whether such a hint will be given by the members of the FOMC at the next meeting or decide to wait will largely determine the nature of the market in the medium term. And the increase in uncertainty and volatility in both directions, this is also the nature of the market.
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