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Neither the speech of the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, nor good economic data on the eurozone saved the European currency from a downward correction paired with the US dollar. The decline in the euro, which was observed on Friday, led to the formation of a fairly important lower limit of the upward channel, from which the further prospects for growth of risky assets will seriously depend.
According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, annual inflation rose in September due to the increase in energy prices. Preliminary inflation, calculated by EU standards, rose to 2.2% in September from 1.9% in August this year. Energy and food prices were above 2 percent. Inflation, excluding volatile prices, the so-called core, increased by 1.5%.
Eurozone industrial production also showed growth, which will support the economy in the 3rd quarter of this year. According to the report, in August, the volume of industrial production of the eurozone increased by 1% compared to July and by 0.9% compared to August 2017. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in production compared to July.
As for the data for the United States, the report on the rise in prices for foreign goods did not support the US dollar. As usual, the growth driver was the price of imported fuel.
According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, import prices in September of this year rose by 0.5% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected growth of 0.3%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, prices rose by 3.5%.
Profit taking in long positions on the US dollar at the end of the day started following the release of data on the US consumer sentiment indicator, which fell slightly in early October. Despite a preliminary report, traders were quick to take profits after the correction.
According to the University of Michigan report, the preliminary consumer sentiment index in October 2018 dropped to 99.0 points from 101.1 points in September. Indicators for assessing current conditions and economic expectations have also declined.
The speech of the European Central Bank president did not lead to the growth of the euro, although in general it was quite positive.
Mario Draghi said that he expects the continuation of large-scale economic growth in the eurozone, as there are no signs of excessive credit growth. Draghi also believes that, despite the fact that certain segments of the real estate market in some eurozone countries require close attention, the overall situation remains under control.
As for Brexit, then the ECB President expressed his fears, because if an agreement is not reached, it will lead to serious risks to financial stability.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the prospects for the growth of the euro remain very good. Despite the downward correction, the rebound from the lower limit of the upward channel, which was formed on Friday in the afternoon, and the breakout of the resistance of 1.1570 will lead to a resumption of demand for risky assets with an exit to the highs of last week and their renewal in the area of 1.1650. If buyers fail to keep the support level of 1.1540, where the lower limit of the ascending channel passes, the prospects for the growth of the EUR/USD pair will be seriously hampered. In this case, it is better to return to long positions after updating the support for 1.1490.
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