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The dollar is back on the wave, as the steep rally on Wall Street has increased risk appetite. If you look at the charts, you can see that the dollar strongly correlated with investors' risk appetite for most of this year, but this correlation has weakened slightly in the past few days, suggesting that markets need stronger economic data to push the dollar higher.
Against the basket of major currencies, the dollar rose 0.1% to 95.15 points, but still remains about 2% below the peak of 2018, when in mid-August, the index reached 97 points. The British pound fell 0.2 percent, to $ 1.3158. The euro traded at around 1,15575 dollars, losing 0.2 percent.
In recent weeks, currency swaps in the euro, yen, and pound, indicators of offshore dollar liquidity, have noticeably expanded. This suggests that the increase in interest rates in the US Federal Reserve has reduced the availability of overseas dollars. Risk caution is justified. Replacing the Fed's liquidity occurred due to tougher liquidity conditions outside the United States. You should look for clues regarding the future direction of the dollar in the minutes of the September Fed meeting, which will be published on Wednesday evening.
The probability of an increase in interest rates in December is still estimated at 77% according to the FedWatch data from the CME Group. Two more growth is expected next year.
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