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Uncertainty in financial markets has led to a marked increase in volatility, which affects all financial markets without exception. The factors influencing this are still strong and significant.
These influential factors include the continuation of the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve, the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as the generally strong data on the profits of US companies, which, in our opinion, only temporarily restrain the continuation of the fall in US stock indexes. Against this background, the dollar is also perceived ambiguously. When fears grow over the growth prospects of the world economy, it grows up realizing its function of a safe haven, it decreases, on the contrary, when investors are already worried about the state of the economy in the States themselves.
In this sense, another factor of uncertainty is the expectation of elections to the US Congress, which will take place in November and carry a significant political and reputational risk for the country. It is unclear who can win the elections, Republicans or Democrats. One thing is clear that the victory of the former will strengthen D. Trump's position, and secondly, it can lead to the impeachment of the American president, which could become the basis for the collapse of the local stock market and the fall in the yield of government Treasury bonds.
The likely dynamics of the dollar is still unclear, since it is not clear how investors will evaluate the election results. It is not clear how he will be perceived? How is currency safe? What will be the reason for his appreciation? Or everything will be the other way around, market participants will avoid dollar assets and will sell US currency. It seems to us that a lot will depend on the details of the developing events. For the time being, most likely, in the foreign exchange market, the general period of consolidation of currency pairs where the US dollar is present will continue. It is likely that after Friday's weakening of the dollar today, it will receive short-term support, and tomorrow, on the contrary, it may be under pressure, swinging like on a swing, up and down.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1500. The pair remains in the "side" range not a wave of uncertainty. From a technical point of view, it may continue to grow locally to 1.1575, if held above the level of 1.1500, but a decline below this level may lead to a fall in prices to 1.1445.
The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below the level of 112.70 in the wake of the demand for stocks in the local financial market in Japan. From a technical point of view, the pair held in the short-term uptrend, and, on overcoming the level of 112.70, has the potential for local growth to 113.25.
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