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Prospects for global growth in 2019 for the first time in a long time do not look the best. Experts believe that the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the tightening of financial conditions, may cause a decline.
In early 2018, optimism about the steady growth of the global economy was almost unanimous. However, a survey of more than 500 economists this month showed a decrease in forecasts for 18 of 44 economies, 23 remained unchanged and 3 were slightly increased. While the risks associated with protectionism, in 32 of the 44 economies have already reached a maximum.
"There is a simple dynamic in the global economy. The US is flourishing, while most of the rest of the world is slowing down or even stagnating. The effort caused by this discrepancy has a negative effect on many emerging markets," said Janet Henry, chief economist at HSBC.
"Firstly, there will be no winners in the world trade war. Even if the cumulative losses are modest, and some advantages go to a more open economy, all parties will ultimately feel worse than the current status quo," said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.
Most economists covering the US economy said that the US economic policy toward China over the next few years will become more confrontational. At the same time, a faster than expected increase in US interest rates indicates a significant slowdown in the US economy by the end of next year.
The global growth forecast for 2019 is 3.6 percent, the first decline since July 2017. It is also lower than the IMF expectations, 3.7 percent.
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