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The strengthening of the currencies of the EM and Italian assets gave only temporary support to the euro "bulls", allowing the creation of short positions on the rise of the EUR / USD pair, which is not surprising. Moody's has not yet spoiled the rating of Italy and kept it at a stable level, but still can be. The Italian government does not pay attention to the criticism of European officials and continues to insist that by accelerating economic growth, we can wait for the decline in the share of debts in GDP. In the meantime, the draft budget is most likely to be finalized, and in the absence of progress, Rome risks getting penalties. The intensification of political problems in Europe leads to the actions of European "bears". In addition, the US President intends to reduce the influence of politics in the country.
Donald Trump said that after the November elections, Congress will take on the pencil the question of reducing the tax for the middle class by 10%. The Democrats are leading in the midterm elections, so the head of the White House announces a new list of promises. Along with this, Trump has a powerful trump card, an impressive economic growth for two quarters in a row since 2014.
After the truce concluded this summer, America reanimated the process of trade negotiations with the European Union. Washington's principle is "zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies for non-automobile-related industrial goods." The parties have already agreed three times in a few years, but it does not work out, and something suggests that this time, it is unlikely that everything will be easy and simple. In the case of protracted negotiations, the euro will be on the negative wave. The volume of eurozone exports in GDP is higher than in the US.
In the short term, the following factors will be the main driving force behind EUR / USD quotes:
Recall that last Friday, the yield differential of bonds of Italy and Germany reached a 5-year peak, 341 bp. When expanding the spread to 400 bp, the country's banking system will get a serious blow, according to Credit Suisse. Rome already has 260 billion euros of unpaid loans, and this is the highest result in the European Union.
It is unlikely that the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will be profitable to save the sinking ship on board with the euro. In its interests, rather, devaluation, which will create a fertile ground for accelerating core inflation, that is, will allow the regulator to perform the main task.
For the last days, the EUR / USD exchange rate knocks for the second time in a row on support at the level of 1.143–1.145. In the case of its overcoming, the "bears" will be open to 1.13.
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