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Today, all investors' attention will be paid to the release of data on employment in the US economy for the month of November.
The ADP company's private-sector employment data released on Thursday were weaker than expected, which probably led some investors to believe that the Fed may even pause in raising interest rates at the December meeting, and next year this number may increase significantly than expected. Especially this doubt increased after the last speech of J. Powell, in which he stated that interest rates are at neutral levels.
One more important point should also be taken into account. The Fed raises rates and reduces its balance, not only to curb the likelihood of overheating of the national economy, but also to "blow away" the emerging financial bubbles in the local financial market, as the dramatic change in the economic situation from positive to negative the ten-year cycle threatens to turn into a real collapse with all the negative consequences.
Let us return to the publication today of data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the American economy. According to the consensus forecast, the number of new jobs in November will increase by 200,000. In October, this increase amounted to 250,000.
Investors have a question, but how will the Fed respond to weaker data, will there be a signal about a likely pause in raising interest rates or not?
Considering how, on Thursday, commented on the figures from ADP, J. Powell, and he noted that the labor market remains strong, wages are rising and the overall situation in the economy remains positive, the Fed may not leave such statistics on the way to normalization of monetary policy.
We believe that if there are strong data on the number of new jobs, it will support the dollar, and if they are weaker, but not so much, it will not cause significant damage to the US currency.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair AUD / USD is trading above a strong support level of 0.7200. If the numbers on employment in the United States prove to be strong and the price overcomes this mark, there is a chance that the local price will continue to decline to 0.7150.
The currency pair USD / CAD is above the level of 1.3365. It is supported by the uncertainty of the decision of OPEC + to reduce the volume of crude oil production to maintain prices on the market. From a technical point of view, if the pair holds above the level of 1.3365, it will have the potential to grow to 1.3500.
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