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Such a feeling that market participants looked only at ADP data on employment yesterday, which actually turned out to be worse than forecast and made far-reaching conclusions regarding the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor published today. The fact is that employment increased by 179 thousand while the forecast was 195 thousand, whereas last month it increased by 225 thousand. In other words, the growth rate of employment slowed down a lot and this frightens many. However, if you look at unemployment benefits or rather their number, the picture is somewhat different as it fell by 78 thousand while they expected a decrease of 15 thousand. But in fairness, that ADP data has a slightly higher weight. It is also worth noting that the final data on business activity indices still showed a decline, although they turned out to be better than forecasts. Thus, the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 54.8 to 54.7, and not to 54.4. And the composite index fell not to 54.4 but to 54.7. The previous value is 54.9.
The main event of the day will be the publication of the report of the US Department of Labor, and given the forecasts, as well as yesterday's ADP data, investors are not suited to it with the best feelings. On the one hand, indicators such as the unemployment rate, the average hourly wage, as well as, the average length of the working week should remain unchanged. However, the number of new jobs may decrease from 250 thousand to 200 thousand, which will confirm the ADP data on the slowdown in employment growth. This is an extremely negative factor and commodity stocks in the wholesale warehouses will increase the fears, as they should increase by another 0.3%. The last time the stocks were reduced only in October 2017 and since then they have been growing steadily, which is an extremely disturbing factor that threatens to turn into a crisis of overproduction.
In Europe today, only the final GDP data for the third quarter is released, which will confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 2.2% to 1.7%. Of course, the news is not the most joyful, but this development has long been taken into account by the market so that the single European currency will depend on American statistics. Thus, it is worth waiting for the growth of the euro to 1.1425 given the projections for the content of the report of the US Department of Labor.
In the UK, Halifax data on housing prices will be published. the growth rate of which can slow down from 1.5% to 1.0% and at first it will negatively affect the pound. However, the market will only respond to US statistics, so the pound will be able to complete the week at 1.2800.
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