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The situation on world markets is still ambiguous. The resumption of negotiations between the US and China on trade has brought some revival and led to higher hopes for resolving this crisis, but they remain unsteady and can crumble at any moment like a house of cards. Another important point constrains the actions of investors, at least in Europe, this is the problem of Brexit. The meeting of EU leaders on Thursday confirmed the persistent desire of continental Europe to "expose" Britain from the union, with or without an agreement.
There are positive points for investors, as they believe. First of all, this is a signal from the ECB, which, following yesterday's meeting, made it clear that with the termination of the incentive program this month, the regulator will not be in a hurry to start raising interest rates next year and will also continue to reinvest some of the money, somewhat modified, but a variant of soft monetary policy. Secondly, the markets are hoping that in the wake of signals that the US economy is slowing down, the Fed will stop raising interest rates or at least pause the process. All this has a general chilling effect on the markets and contributes to increased volatility.
In the foreign exchange market, the main currency pairs, in general, remain in narrow ranges in anticipation of the final decision of the Fed on monetary policy at the two-day meeting on December 19-20. In accordance with the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, it is assumed that the key interest rate will be increased by the next 0.25% to 2.50% with a probability of 78.4%. Now, the market is no longer interested in this fact, but in what the Fed will have plans for next year. Will their plan to continue to actively raise interest rates or will their plans change? Now, this is the main question, which is the reason for the slowdown of activity in the currency markets.
Given this state of affairs, we believe that the overall picture of consolidation in the markets until the outcome of the Fed meeting will continue.
Forecast of the day:
The AUD / USD currency pair fell below the level of 0.7200 in the wake of the publication of weak data on the volume of industrial production in China, with which Australia has close economic ties. If the price keeps below this level, it is likely that it will fall to 0.7150.
The NZD / USD currency pair is above the level of 0.6800 and is also under pressure against the background of Chinese economic statistics. If the price holds below this level, it may continue to decline to 0.6750.
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