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Earlier this year, oil conquered one peak after another, aided by two main factors. One is increased demand and the other, a limited supply. At the present time, the hydrocarbon market is experiencing a difficult time. The forecasts of experts regarding the future prospects of black gold differ. Someone expects a fall in prices and a moderate decline in quotations in the second half of 2019. Others are hoping for an increase in oil demand in the coming year, which resulted in a recovery. The average oil price forecast for 2019 is $ 60-65 per barrel for Brent.
What factors will most strongly affect the quotes in early 2019?
OPEC and RF mining levels
OPEC members and other major oil producers in the world decided at a meeting in December to reduce the level of oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the level recorded in October. The hardest to "shrink" will be Saudi Arabia, which produced by 350 thousand barrels per day in November more than in October. Save the current mark, perhaps, it will turn out in Iran. Recall that its production rate in November actually decreased by 31 thousand barrels per day.
If the cartel suppliers join the deal, which is unlikely to happen, the total production of OPEC in January 2019 will be close to 32.214 million barrels per day. In this scenario, the decline in production compared with the November marks of 866 thousand barrels per day will be insignificant.
The oil "came to life" with a little on the announcement by the cartel members of their intention to lower production levels and then went down again. This is a clear sign that the announced restrictions, even together with an additional 400,000 barrels from OPEC +, will not be enough to stimulate quotes. Perhaps this level of decline will be enough to stabilize prices in 2019. One thing is clear here: the growth of oil needs additional restrictions.
Iran sanctions
In November, America freed 8 importers of Iranian oil from anti-Iranian measures. To discuss this issue, the United States will return in April. The main intrigue is whether the changes will be extended, reduced, or completely reversed. Due to these measures, countries are able to buy at least 850 thousand barrels per day. The volume is insignificant, given that the global oil industry produces about 100 million barrels per day, but at the moment it is of great importance and is able to influence prices.
Large oil producers will appreciate the result of restrictive measures precisely in April because, at this time, Washington will review the exceptions to the sanctions.
It should be noted that the refusal of the United States to extend anti-Iranian measures will lead to an increase in oil prices if OPEC and the Russian Federation continue to reduce production.
The development of the oil industry in America
The United States has become the world leader in producing black gold. Fresh data from the Energy Information Administration showed that the country managed to achieve a record of 11.5 million barrels per day in September. High rates remained in November. EIA estimates the figure at a similar 11.5 million barrels.
Last week, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and fuel but this week they have not confirmed their title. As for the next year, the EIA expects that the average level of production in the States will be 12.1 million barrels per day. Factors such as trade war, rising interest rates and infrastructural constraints can undermine growth.
Since rumors that the Fed will pause the process of tightening policy in 2019, are actively playing, we should expect to maintain the flow of investment in shale oil injection companies.
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