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Previously, we have not once pointed out that global markets, and with them, investors, are under intense pressure from an uncertainty factor that has not disappeared anywhere.
Despite the fact that world central banks, first of all, the Fed and the ECB, have begun to declare, in the case of the European regulator, the desire to begin normalization of monetary policy, and the US Central Bank has already been conducting this process over the past few years, it seems that they are confronted that the tightening of monetary policies threatens to escalate into a new economic downturn, behind which a new crisis looms, will be forced to continue to pursue, after all, a soft economic policy.
The latest ECB balance sheet data presented clearly indicates that after a loud announcement of the end of quantitative easing last December, the regulator's balance continues to grow. This indicates that the bank continues the process of buying assets to support a weakening European economy. It seems that our thesis, presented in yesterday's article, that the economy of the eurozone is beginning to lose its strength and that in the future could turn into a destructive vicious circle, is beginning to come true.
The words of M. Draghi, President of the ECB, that economic growth in the eurozone weakened more than expected, indicate that the regulator will have to continue to pursue the covert redemption of government bonds, pumping up the local financial system in an attempt to prevent an economic collapse. It turns out, by the same token, that the Central Bank, by its policy of saving everything and everyone in the region accountable to it, fell into a trap. The weakening of economic growth in Europe against the background of the same, but already global, process will again force further incentive measures, which ultimately will put the local economy on a needle of regular financial injections. But it should be understood that this process cannot last forever, once it ends, which will be the strongest blow to the eurozone economy, the common unity of Europe. In the future, it will be possible to observe the worst financial crisis, which, in our opinion, will stop the project of a united Europe and lead to the disintegration of the eurozone as an economic entity.
As for the immediate prospects, in our opinion, high volatility in the markets will continue, and the process of slipping the global economy into a new recession will not stop neither the agreement between China and the US on trade, nor Brexit's permission, nor the pumping of financial systems with liquidity.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair EUR / USD remains under pressure against the background of the continuing risk of an economic downturn in the eurozone. If the pair consolidates below the level of 1.1385, it may continue to fall to 1.1345, and then to 1.1315.
The currency pair AUD / USD is losing momentum against the background of high risks of a continued decline in China's economic growth and the world economy as a whole. In this situation, under pressure, there are high-yielding currencies, which include the Australian dollar. Given the negative sentiment in the market, we can expect the pair to continue to decline to 0.7100 after overcoming the level of 0.7150.
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