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Friday brought a bunch of conflicting data to the markets. The growth of industrial production in the US in December was slightly better than expected, the positive trend should somewhat reduce the negative from the slowdown in PMI. At the same time, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan fell from 98.3p to 90.7p, that is, to levels corresponding to the time Trump was elected.
Consumer confidence held at high levels for a long time, since tax reform eased fiscal pressure on all major taxpayer groups, but the shutdown that began in December and the recognition that economic growth slowed down could not but affect consumer sentiment.
Nevertheless, the markets ended Friday with rapid growth, which lasts for the fourth day in a row. Dow Jones added 3%, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to a maximum since December, growth was supported on Asian markets on Monday. The main reason for the positive is the insider that the US is considering the option of easing duties on a part of goods imported from China in preparation for a large-scale trade agreement. These concessions should also push China toward reciprocal steps, which in the end will bring the trade war to an end. According to rumors, China is ready to increase merchandise imports from the United States by $ 1 trillion over 6 years and reduce the commodity deficit to zero by 2014, if these rumors are true, they can provoke a rapid growth of risky assets and will contribute to changes in expectations Fed rate in the direction of renewed growth.
At the same time, macroeconomic data coming from China indicate a gradual completion of the rapid growth phase, in December there was a noticeable decline in both imports and exports, there was a decline in car sales by more than 10%, which forces China's financial authorities to introduce all new and new incentives. Fears of a hard landing should have contributed to a decrease in stock indices, but on Monday the Shanghai Composite is also trading in the green zone, that is, the rising probability of ending the trade war blocks the negative from the upcoming slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Positive, most likely, will continue with the opening of Europe on Monday, the growth of stock indices, a decrease in defensive assets such as gold and the Japanese yen is likely.
Eurozone
Despite the fact that macroeconomic data from the United States indicate an approaching recession, players are in no hurry to buy euros. A number of factors indicate that the slowdown in the eurozone is systemic and not temporary (budget crisis in Italy, yellow vest protests in France, political risks in Germany, Brexit are temporary factors and are indirectly related to the economy), that is, the incentive program which the ECB has been pursuing since 2014, has not achieved results, but only temporarily allowed to postpone the most difficult phase of the crisis.
The likelihood of a trade deal between the US and China increases the potential pressure on the eurozone, because immediately after what is desired from China is received, Trump turns his attention to Europe and we can expect a new trade war.
Negative to the euro strengthened the performance of Mario Draghi last week, in which he admitted that macroeconomic data looked worse than expected and the period of low growth could drag on. The only thing that looks confident at this stage is the growth of wages in the eurozone, but this factor alone is not enough to expect hawkish rhetoric from the ECB on Thursday.
On Tuesday, the ZEW indexes will be published, on Thursday, Markit's PMI, negative expectations, the euro is under pressure and the situation is unlikely to change until Thursday. On Monday, EUR / USD may test the trend line at the support level of 1.1330, more pronounced sales are unlikely until new data is available.
Great Britain
Britain is preparing for a new vote on Brexit, which is scheduled for January 29. There are a lot of options for the development of events, and they are largely polar, so the pound can react in any direction, if a corresponding insider appears. Today, in the absence of new data, trading in the range is most likely, support at 1.2831 is likely to hold out, movement towards 1.30 is a bit more likely, but is unlikely to be expressed without new data.
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