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The expected, but somehow still unexpected result of the Fed meeting collapsed the US dollar rate on Wednesday. The main outcome of the meeting, as well as the speech of its head, J. Powell, was the actual reversal of the prospects for monetary policy.
Earlier, amid signals of a slowdown in US economic growth, as well as the global economy, the heads of federal banks and Powell began signaling markets earlier this year that the regulator may revise its plans for the number of interest rate increases. This led to an increase in optimism among investors and led to an increase in their interest in risky assets. On this wave of "understatement", there was still an element of uncertainty, which held back, on the one hand, the increased demand for risky assets, and on the other, the weakening of the US dollar.
On Wednesday, the regulator dropped a veil of uncertainty, removing from the communique after meeting the phrase about the need for "further gradual increase in interest rates." In fact, the Central Bank made it clear that the likelihood of higher interest rates in the current year has decreased significantly and will depend entirely on the dynamics of the country's economy and inflationary pressure. In turn, do not give grounds to hope that changes can occur in the near foreseeable future.
Given such a sharp turn in the prospects for the monetary policy of the American regulator, one can say that the dollar will continue to lose its position in the foreign exchange markets. In our opinion, this may lead to the fact that the ICE dollar index may fall in the future to a local minimum of the beginning of 2018. Additional pressure on it will also provide a possible cessation of the reduction in the balance of the Fed. In his speech on Wednesday after the meeting, J. Powell made it clear that this process may stop. If this is done, then the dollar will undoubtedly reach the minimum values a year ago.
In the near future, most likely, the dollar will decline. Its fall will be most noticeable in relation to the currencies of countries with developing economies, as well as the currencies of the commodity group. Here, negotiations between the US and China on trade will play an important role. They are expected to conclude an agreement today, which can alleviate tensions between Washington and Beijing and if not contribute to restoring global economic growth, then at least prevent its decline.
Forecast of the day:
The currency pair EUR / USD is above the level of 1.1480 in the wake of the outcome of the Fed meeting on monetary policy. If it manages to stay above this level, it can continue to grow. We consider it possible to purchase a pair with a target of 1.1565.
The currency pair AUD / USD is above the level of 0.7235. Fixing above this mark will lead to its growth to 0.7335.
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