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All recent events that influence global markets continue to point the lack of clear and precise certainty, which is most pronounced in the foreign exchange market.
The American dollar, despite all the speeches of Fed members, including its head, J. Powell, the regulator's decisions to suspend further increases in interest rates, as well as a reduction in the balance, retains their positions as a whole in relation to major currencies other than the British, but this is a slightly different story.
It turns out like a strange story. The American regulator climbs out of its way, showing all of its actions, that it wants to weaken the dollar and stimulate demand for dollar assets, but this does not happen. In our opinion, this is due to the fact that the overall emerging picture in the three largest economies of the world - American, Chinese and European - indicates the process of its inhibition, and in these cases, as historical practice shows. Investors are not in a hurry to buy risky assets and, vice versa, try to get rid of them. However, it should be recognized that the current situation is somewhat unique. It was largely generated by the aggressive foreign policy of D. Trump, who is trying to change the balance of trade with trade partners in favor of the United States. This was the reason for the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, which hit the European one, and the American also does not stand aside from this influence.
Investors, on the one hand, hope to conclude a normal and adequate trade agreement between the PRC and the United States, which maintains interest in risky assets and puts pressure on the dollar. On the other hand, there is still no visible progress, but only optimistic. First of all, reports by the American president on the positive process of the negotiation process.
Markets are watching all this. It seems that the big players took a pause in their desire to see the outcome of this drama. That is why there is slurred lateral dynamics in the foreign exchange market, and with rather low volatility.
Regarding the behavior of sterling, we note that it grows only on the wave of the local factor - hopes that Brexit will be canceled. How long it will last is difficult to say. The whole picture forming around the exit of Britain from the EU is too fluid.
Forecast of the day:
The AUDUSD is trading above the level of 0.7130. Probably, the pair will remain in the range of 0.7060-0.7200. Today, it can break through the support of 0.7130 and rush to 0.7060 against the background of the publication of weak business activity data in the manufacturing sector of China, which indicate a negative trend, falling below the level of 50 points.
The pair USDCAD also seems to remain in the range of 1.3120-1.3240 on the wave of lower expectations for higher interest rates in Canada, as well as a possible stabilization of crude oil prices. Probably, if level 1.3120 stands, the pair will continue to grow to 1.3240.
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