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Before the important meeting of the Federal Reserve System, the euro continued to trade in a narrow side channel paired with the US dollar, which many analysts expect, can change its tone of statements to a softer one. This suggests that the US regulator refuses to raise interest rates in the near future in order to maintain the current rate of economic growth. For more details on this topic, we will talk closer to the meeting itself.
Yesterday, news emerged that the United States Trade Representative, Lighthizer, and the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will fly to Beijing on March 25 to hold regular talks on trade relations between the United States and China, which have reached the final stage. The meeting will be held with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, but it is not yet clear how long the talks will last. Liu He will pay a return visit to Washington next week, which may put the final point in the negotiations.
Markets calmly received this news. The data that came out yesterday afternoon was ignored.
According to the report, the Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs index, which characterizes sales in US retail chains, declined by 2.6% in the week from March 9 to 16 compared with the previous week. The fall in sales was due to rainy weather. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales for the week increased by 1.5%.
As noted by the Retail Economist, poor weather was hampered by the poor performance of retail chains, which affected sales. Let me remind you that a week earlier, sales in retail chains increased by 1.2% compared with the previous week.
According to the Redbook, for the first 2 weeks of March, the retail sales in the US increased by only 0.1%, while compared to the same period in 2018, sales increased by 4.6%. As for sales for the week from March 6 to March 16, compared with the previous year, the growth was 4.9%.
Weak data on production orders in the United States also failed to help the US dollar. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, industrial orders in the United States in January 2019 increased by only 0.1% and $ 500.48 billion, which fully coincided with the expectations of economists.
Production orders excluding transportation in January decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous month, while excluding defense goods, orders rose by 0.2%. As for orders for durable goods, they increased by 0.3% in January compared with December.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Another unsuccessful attempt to update yesterday's high will be a signal to open short positions in risky assets, which may lead to a decrease in the trading instrument to the support area of 1.1335, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger sale to the minima of 1.1300 and 1.1250. In case of growth above resistance 1.1370, the demand for the euro will increase significantly, which will open a direct path to the highs of 1.1410 and 1.1490, however, such large growth will occur only with real changes in the US monetary policy, which we will learn in the second half of the day.
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