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Euro buyers failed to cope yesterday with a large level around 1.1325, which led to a downward correction. However, the fundamental data on the American economy and the statements of the Fed representatives did not greatly help the dollar to continue its strengthening against risky assets.
Yesterday, there was news that the United States and China had drawn up an approximate schedule for the next round of trade negotiations, which is a good signal for the markets. The agreement is expected to be signed by the end of May. It is already known that the US sales representative Lighthizer planned a trip to Beijing on April 29.
The fundamental data released yesterday indicated that the trade deficit in the USA in February of this year was reduced due to a stronger increase in exports over imports.
As indicated in the report of the US Department of Commerce, the foreign trade deficit decreased by 3.4% in February 2019 compared with the amounted to 49.38 billion US dollars in the previous month.
As I noted above, exports in February increased by 1.1% and amounted to 209.69 billion dollars, while imports increased by only 0.2% compared with the previous month. It is noteworthy that the deficit of trade in goods with China decreased by 9.3% compared in the previous month and amounted to 30.12 billion dollars.
Stocks from wholesale companies in the US resumed their growth. According to the report of the Ministry of Commerce, inventories in the wholesale trade increased by 0.2% in February 2019 compared with the previous month, while economists expected growth of 0.4%.
The Philadelphia Fed President is one of the few who is still optimistic about interest rates, especially given the fact that at a recent meeting the Central Bank hinted that rates could be lowered if necessary. Perhaps one of the few who still believes in changes in monetary policy is Patrick Harker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In the course of yesterday's interview, Herker said that one more rate increase is still possible this year and another one in 2020. In his opinion, the labor market is strong and inflation is restrained. Harker expects inflation to average more than 2% this year and the US GDP will grow by 2% this year and the next year.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not undergone major changes. Major support remains the lower boundary of the lateral channel at 1.1280, while the upper region of 1.1325 acts as resistance. All of these are in harmony with the average boundary of the channel in the area of 1.1300. Further movement of the euro today will depend on the upcoming economic data from the euro area.
The Canadian dollar has temporarily regained its position against the US dollar after a report that annual inflation in Canada accelerated in March. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, Canada's total CPI rose by 1.9% in March against 1.5% in the previous month. The data completely coincided with economists' forecasts and inflation rose by 0.7% compared with the previous month. The base CPI increased by 2.2% compared with the same period last year.
Canada's foreign trade deficit declined in February, which also provided temporary support for the Canadian dollar. According to the report, the shortage of foreign trade in goods amounted to 2.90 billion Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, economists had expected the deficit to reach $3.6 billion. Exports fell by 1.3% in February, while imports fell by 1.6%.
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