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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar after the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator. For a whole week, traders were forced to put up with negative economic reports from America, which led to a fairly strong fall in the US currency. However, last night, the business activity index in the ISM services sector came out, which turned out to be better than traders' expectations, and even after a very weak report from ADP on the change in the number of employed, the US dollar still came back to life. As a result, the pair closed below the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241), which now allows us to count on the continuation of the fall of quotations in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% (1.1177). Today, the European Central Bank will report the results of its regular meeting on monetary policy. Rates, as the market expects, are unlikely to change, so the main attention of the foreign exchange market will be focused on the press conference of Mario Draghi. Given the weak inflation in May and the program of lending to banks TLTRO, which Draghi said earlier, it is possible that there will be "dovish" rhetoric in his speech today. If Draghi notes the possible need to support the EU economy and will again talk about TLTRO, it will be regarded by traders as a signal to new sales of the euro.
The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair closed below the correction level of 76.4%. Thus, I recommend selling the euro today with a target of 1.1177, a protective order above the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair after the closing of quotations above the level of 76.4% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1281 and a stop-loss order under 1.1241.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair also retreated from the highs of the environment, after a strong business activity index in the service sector ISM the United States. But the situation with Brexit, the election of the Prime Minister and the leader of the Conservative party continues to weigh on the British pound. All this is perceived by traders as uncertainty, and, consequently, the market's desire to buy a pound sterling is absent as such. The pound received a little rest in recent days. This is due to weak economic reports from America, Jerome Powell's fears of trade wars. However, these factors did not change the situation in the UK. Thus, if the euro has a chance of growth, in the case of the pound, there are no factors that can cause demand for this currency. Today, the attention of traders will shift towards the Bank of England, as Chairman Mark Carney will make a speech today. It is logical to expect words from Carney about Brexit, the election of the Prime Minister and the impact of these processes on monetary policy. Accordingly, his words may affect the GBP/USD pair. Closing the pair's quotes below the 76.4% Fibo level will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437).
The Fibo grid was built on extremums from January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator, and a return to the correction level of 161.8% (1.2673). The retreat of quotes from this level will allow traders expecting the resumption of the pair's growth in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.2780). There are no emerging divergences on June 6. Fixing below important levels on two charts will greatly increase the probability of a new pair decline in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% (1.2554).
The Fibo grid was built on extremums from April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair performed a return to the correction level 1.2673. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2782, with stop-loss order below the level of 1.2673 if you run the rebound from the level of 161.8%. I recommend selling the pair at the close of quotations under the Fibo level of 161.8% (hourly chart) with a target of 1.2554 and a protective order above the level of 1.2673.
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