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EUR / USD
On Thursday, June 13, trading ended for EUR / USD by a decrease of only 10 bp. Thus, the current wave counting, which suggests the construction of a corrective three wave section of the trend, has remained in force. Since the three waves are already traced, this wave structure can be completed in the near future. The euro-dollar tool will resume the increase in the upward trend. The news background, supporting the Eurocurrency in recent weeks, may hinder the execution of this option. However, this will not always be the case. Today in America, data on retail sales and consumer confidence are shown, which can support the dollar and the euro. If the US dollar receives support, we'll have to monitor the correctional structure if it takes a convincing look. Previously, there are no news from Europe.
Purchase goals:
1.1367 - 76.4% Fibonacci
1.1447 - 100.0% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro / dollar pair presumably completed the first wave of the upward trend. I recommend to wait for the completion of wave 2 construction and start purchasing Eurocurrency with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1367 and 1.1447, which equates to 76.4% and 100.0% Fibonacci. As a signal of the completion of the construction of wave 2, you can consider turning the MACD up.
GBP / USD
The pair GBP / USD continues to make the third attempt to break through the level of 161.8% Fibonacci. The last day's trading ended with a decrease of the pound-dollar pair by only a few points, which in no way affected the wave pattern. The community of traders strongly discusses the victory of Boris Johnson in the first round of elections for the post of head of the Conservative Party and British Prime Minister. The closest competitors are behind by more than 50 votes. A total of 341 party members voted. But at the same time, markets are not in a hurry to play this information, since this is only the first round, and, despite the victory of Johnson with a large margin, subsequent tours may not be so much unequivocal. Thus, I still expect the resumption of the construction of the downward trend. But, as before, in order to confirm the readiness of markets for this scenario, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the level of 200.0% Fibonacci. Today, by the way, Mark Carney's statement - the Chairman of the Central Bank of England - will take place, and the information can be very interesting, given the fact that there is only more for discussion in the UK now.
Sales targets:
1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci
1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument does not change and implies a resumption of the instrument decline within the framework of the proposed wave from or a new, fifth wave. Thus, now, I recommend waiting for a breakout level of 200.0% and selling the pound with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2360 and 1.2176, which corresponds to 261.8% and 323.6% in Fibonacci. Purchasing, from my point of view, still carries increased risks.
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