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The absence of important fundamental statistics, as well as a report on wage growth in the euro area, helped the euro to strengthen its position against the US dollar after a massive Friday.
However, the growth potential will be limited, since the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System will begin tomorrow, after which a decision will be made on further monetary policy. Making a decision is complicated by the deterioration of global economic growth and trade conflicts that the United States is trying to impose on China and Mexico.
According to the data, wage growth in the eurozone accelerated in the first quarter, which will support the economy, as wage increases have a positive effect on consumer spending. Given the weakening of external demand, the eurozone economy, more than ever, needs a boom in the domestic market.
According to the EU statistical agency Eurostat, wages increased by 2.5% in the 1st quarter of 2019 compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising 2.3% in the 4th quarter. Employment growth in the 1st quarter, along with wage growth, will trigger consumption and accelerate the economy in the 2nd quarter of this year.
On the other hand, wage growth and low unemployment have not yet led to an increase in consumer price inflation, which the European Central Bank hopes for.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, while the bulls are doing their job, and closing the day above 1.1230 will be a good signal to buy risky assets, since, ultimately, the US Federal Reserve may announce its planned reduction in interest rates this fall by Wednesday. Many analysts are emphasizing not when, but how many times the Fed will lower interest rates this year. At least two decreases are expected.
With the return scenarios below the level of 1.1230, bears can easily form the upper limit of the new downward channel, which will maintain pressure on risky assets and lead to a further update of the low in the 1.1170 area.
Tensions in relations between Iran and the United States are only increasing. Today it became known that Iran is ready to exceed the limit on enriched uranium reserves provided for by a nuclear deal within 10 days. The reserves of enriched uranium in Iran amounted to 174.1 kilograms at the end of May, while the limit is equal to 202.8 kilograms.
Such a decision undermines the international agreement on the nuclear program, which will only increase tensions in the Persian Gulf region.
Iran is demanding European countries to take the initiative to support the economy under the conditions imposed by the US sanctions. If the EU refuses to assist, then Iran will violate the nuclear agreement. This was announced today by the representative of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency Behrouz Kamalvandi.
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