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EUR / USD
On Tuesday, June 18, trading ended for the pair EUR / USD with a decrease of 25 basis points. This is not much, but this decrease leads to the fact that the expected wave 2 takes on an even longer appearance and threatens to transform into a pulsed wave with the complication of the downward trend. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of the supposed wave will indicate the readiness of the markets for further sales of the pair. What remains to the foreign exchange market is if the news supports the US dollar. It will force investors to buy this particular currency. Yesterday, the ECB Chairman openly declared that in the next few months, the ECB could ease monetary policy, since inflation has slowed down very recently. A quantitative incentive program may also be resumed. What could be the reaction of markets to such rhetoric? But, what is more important than Draghi's performance is Powell's performance tonight. Markets will closely follow his words and hints of changes in the Fed's monetary policy in the near future. And in this case, the "pigeon" rhetoric may already support the Eurocurrency. The key rate of the Fed is unlikely to be reduced today and the probability of such an outcome is no more than 10%.
Purchase goals:
1.1367 - 76.4% Fibonacci
1.1447 - 100.0% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro / dollar pair completed the first wave of the upward trend. I recommend to wait for the completion of wave 2 construction and to start purchasing Eurocurrency with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1367 and 1.1447, which equates to 76.4% and 100.0% Fibonacci. At the same time, the departure of the tool below the minimum of wave c will complicate the current wave marking.
GBP / USD
The GBP / USD pair gained about 30 bp in the evening, which led to a minimum departure of quotes from the lows reached and the construction of a correctional wave e in the future. If the current wave counting is correct, the decline in quotations is resumed with targets located near the levels of 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. However, today, Powell was not a frank "dove", and the Fed did not lower the rate. If Powell, as he is following Draghi, begins to fear protectionism, trade conflicts, growing public debt, weak inflation, and so on, will hint at possible easing of monetary policy. Then, traders may regard this move as a signal of a recession in the American economy. The euro will be able to add a few dozen more points, and the pound sterling will not resume falling. Before the evening meeting, there will be another important news - the report on inflation in the UK. A strong decline in this indicator will cause a decrease in pounds.
Sales targets:
1.2434 - 161.8% Fibonacci
1.2359 - 200.0% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.2767 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument does not change and implies a continuation of the instrument decline in the framework of the fifth wave. Thus, now, I recommend selling the pound with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.2434 and 1.2359, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% in Fibonacci. Purchasing, from my point of view, still carries increased risks.
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