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In the last two weeks, oil of all sorts has increased in price. As usual, there are plenty of factors influencing oil pricing. The main factor, in our view, is the weakening of the US dollar on all fronts, caused by weak macroeconomic statistics in recent weeks, as well as the "dovish" attitude of many members of the FOMC Committee. At the same time, the continuing geopolitical tensions between the States and Iran should be noted, which significantly reduces the supply of oil on world markets. But on the other hand, the trade war between the States and China reduces the demand for "black gold". Thus, some factors that affect the cost of oil, neutralize each other. At the beginning of the new trading week, oil prices stand still. In principle, we can assume that traders are hiding and waiting for the results of the OPEC meeting and the G20 summit. At the OPEC meeting, a decision can be made on another reduction in oil production, at the G20 summit – Trump and Xi Jinping can agree on a trade agreement that will allow the US leader not to introduce new duties on all imports from China, and to cancel the current trade duties in the future, which will definitely have a positive impact on the volume of production, imports, and exports, as well as on the demand for oil. Accordingly, oil tends to respond to specific facts and events, and not just grow or fall under the influence of speculators and oil traders. Therefore, we need to wait for specific fundamental messages. From a technical point of view, we have a "golden cross" from Ichimoku, but the MACD indicator turned down and indicates a correction that is lateral. Bulls now dominate the market, and the MACD turn to the top will indicate the resumption of oil purchases by the Forex market.
Trading recommendations:
At the moment, the #CL tool is in the correction stage. It is recommended to wait for the MACD indicator to turn upwards and open new long positions with the purpose of the first resistance level of 59.87.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line.
Kijun-Sen – blue line.
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
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