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The political crisis between the US and Iran remains in the focus of world markets. The high likelihood of a US-Iranian military conflict forces investors to be cautious about buying risky assets and more and more paying attention to defensive ones.
A notable influence on investors, besides the theme of Washington's likely strike on Iran, is played by the expectation of a decrease in interest rates by the Fed. We have previously indicated that about half of the voting members of the FOMC support the idea of starting lower interest rates but there is another part that believes that there is no need to hurry with this so far. And here, as usually happens in such cases, the opinion of the head of the American regulator Jerome Powell plays an important role.
Talking about the comments on Tuesday, he again made it clear that he was not inclined to a definite decision to start lowering interest rates. He was optimistic about his comments on the situation in the economy and said that it still remains as strong as the labor market. However, inflation can still manifest itself in his opinion. But on the other hand, he noted that the bank is ready to apply all the necessary measures to support the national economy. In general, he didn't say anything new and in his speech he emphasized what still needed to wait, citing the fact that the regulator should act based on stable trends and not on some local dynamics.
The foreign exchange market reacted to his words by strengthening the US dollar. However, it is more like partial profit taking at the close of short positions in the US currency.
In our opinion, the market can more actively respond to the publication of data on basic orders for durable goods today. If they turn out to be higher than expected, this could be the basis for continuing the limited growth of the dollar.
Overall assessing the situation in the Middle East, the Fed still held back position in the face of its leader regarding changes in the monetary policy, as well as the continuing uncertainty in the trade negotiations between China and the United States against the backdrop of waiting for the leaders of these countries to meet at the G20 in Osaka this week. We believe that the stock market in America will remain under pressure and the situation on the foreign exchange market where the dollar pairs are present will be characterized by lateral dynamics.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is below the level of 1.1410. If the data on orders for durable goods are higher than expected, this may lead to a continuation of the local decline of the pair to 1.1300. At the same time, this may lead to a resumption of price growth to 1.1410 if it is weaker.
The AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.6965 in the wake of existing hopes for lowering the Fed rates. After it fixes above the 0.6965 mark, the pair has growth potential to 0.7010.
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