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The current head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell is really not to be envied. He is actually between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, President D. Trump has been exerting pressure on him for several months now, urging the regulator to lower interest rates in order to stimulate further growth of the national economy. In one of his last twitter posts, he wrote that he would like to lower rates by 100 basis points, or 1%. In addition, he mentioned that he does not exclude the possibility of additional tax cuts to stimulate the economy.
On the other hand, the US financial market, which expects a recession or economic recession in the country in a few months to come, will be most pressured by the Fed if, as he believes, measures to support the national economy will not be taken, first of all, interest rates will be lowered to acceptable values. Investors motivate their fears by high risks to the economy from the widespread trade war between Washington and Beijing. In addition, it clearly demonstrates the growth of fears and the dynamics of profitability of 2-year-old and 10-year-old Treasuries, which practically converge in profitability and threaten to switch places, demonstrating the inversion factor.
The Fed is in a really difficult situation. On the one hand, the country's economy is still showing acceptable growth, the value of GDP on an annualized basis is at 2.3%, but, on the other hand, many important production indicators, as well as consumer sentiment indices, have fallen significantly in growth rates. We understand the regulator's fears, as it believes that there is a real risk of rising inflation amid the effects of the trade war due to rising tariffs, which is one of the constraining factors that does not allow the US central bank to actively reduce rates. But, as we see it, the regulator will have to back down and continue to reduce rates, which means that Trump takes the form of the "tail" and the market wags the "dog" of the Fed, forcing it to do what he wants.
Forecast of the day:
EURUSD is trading in the range of 1.1070-1.1110 in anticipation of the release of the Fed minutes, as well as the performance of J. Powell in Jackson Hole. The pair may break today from the range both up to 1.1155 and down to 1.1025, if the minutes shows a great tendency that the central bank will further lower rates.
USDCAD is trading above 1.3300 in anticipation of consumer inflation data in Canada. If inflationary pressures increase and crude oil prices continue to move upward in the wake of expectations of lower rates in the United States, the pair will continue to decline to 1.3250, breaking the level of 1.3300.
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