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The Black Swan, which suddenly plunged the oil market, affected a number of world currencies. The Canadian dollar did not bypass this fate. After an attack on an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, the loonie can stay in the range of 1.3150–1.3250 for a long time, Scotiabank analysts said.
According to Sean Osbourne, Scotiabank's currency strategist, the dynamics of the loonie are significantly affected by short-term regression models, which include the cost of oil, bonds, stocks and current volatility. These factors reflect the fair value of the loonie, which is approaching 1.2994, S. Osborne asserts. The expert does not exclude short-term retesting of the level of 1.3300, however, he emphasizes that the possibilities for the loonie's significant growth are currently limited.
According to Scotiabank analysts, the USD/CAD pair can trade within 1.3150–1.3250 for a long time, until a more clear trend appears. S. Osborne is confident that the loonie will "settle" in the range of 1.3150 to 1.3250, as it will continue to respond to events in the black gold market after attacks on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia. Currently, the loonie is trading near the marks of 1.3259-1.3263.
Bipan Rai, Head of North American Currency Strategy at CIBC, agrees with Scotiabank. Predicting the further dynamics of the Canadian currency, he expects to consolidate it in the range of 1.3150-1.3220. B. Paradise also takes into account the relationship of the loonie with the dynamics of the price of light oil WTI. When the correlation of the CAD – WTI pair was low, an increase in the realized volatility of raw materials helped to strengthen the CAD – WTI connection, the analyst emphasizes. With a decrease in the CAD – WTI correlation, the possibility of the benefits that the loonie gains from rising oil prices is reduced.
More optimistic expectations regarding the Canadian dollar came from analysts at JP Morgan. They increased the forecast for the loonie from 1.3200 to 1.3100 by the end of this year, and in the third quarter of 2020 they expect a figure of 1.3000. The calculations of specialists are based on a possible one-time rate cut by the Bank of Canada. It is possible that this will happen next month, according to JP Morgan. Analysts take into account the current policy of the Canadian regulator, which does not always coincide with the decisions of the US Federal Reserve.
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