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Yesterday's statements by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did not have much impact on the European currency, which resumed its decline against the US dollar after a report indicating serious problems in the manufacturing sector.
Draghi said the latest data showed no convincing signs of recovery in the eurozone's growth shortly, and the longer the weakness in production persists, the greater the risk that it will spill over to the rest of the economy. The governor made it clear that the central bank has room for further rate cuts, but traders took this statement quite calmly, as the market is already "laying" for further easing of monetary policy in the eurozone. Let me remind you that this month the ECB adopted a large-scale package of measures, including rate cuts and new asset purchases, to support the region's shaky economy. The main problem that slows down the eurozone economy is international trade tensions and weaknesses in key export markets.
Data released yesterday afternoon on US manufacturing activity pointed to growth, which is good news for the Federal Reserve. According to a report by the statistics agency Markit, the preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) for the US services sector in September rose to 50.9 points against 50.7 points in August, although economists had expected a larger increase. But the preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector in September strengthened to 51.0 points, which was better than economists' forecasts. Such data suggest that the US economy feels quite stable even in a trade war with China and the eurozone, and the White House has no reason to end it as soon as possible.
The data on Chicago's national economic activity index was also quite good. According to the report, the activity index calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago rose to 0.10 points in August against a negative value of -0.41 in July this year. In particular, it is worth noting the index associated with the production, which in August made a contribution of 0.16 points versus -0.26 points in July.
Speeches by the Fed representatives at the North American session did not significantly affect the market. Williams said the Fed's repo operations calmed short-term markets, and the Fed was ready, acted quickly to ease market tensions. The required reserve levels are currently being studied and are likely to be increased shortly, as recent fluctuations in short-term markets have been unexpected.
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, spoke on the topic of interest rates, saying that the Fed will make decisions on rates from meeting to meeting, but currently, monetary policy is quite soft. Bullard also noted that a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the global economy is a key risk factor, as trade-related uncertainty will not go away anytime soon.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it will be possible to count on new sales of the euro today only after another "portion" of weak fundamental statistics, which is expected for the German economy. If the report is more convincing, buyers of risky assets may attempt to return to the resistance of 1.1000, above which the demand for the euro may increase in the short term, which will lead to an update of the maximum of 1.1030. If the trading instrument continues its decline, the key support may be the minimum of this month in the area of 1.0925.
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