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Countless mass media agitation and misinformation are only engaged in what they say on the approaching recession in the American economy, arguing the need for a continued easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Here, it demonstrates from the point of view of Europe, where the European Central Bank holds just super soft monetary policy, that shows unprecedented signs -at least they showed preliminary data on indexes of business activity. In particular, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which is an indicator that shows the possibility of a recession, declined from 47.0 to 45.6. It should be noted that in case the figure is below 50.0 points, then the recession, if it has not begun, should be expected in the near future. Moreover, the index of business activity in the services sector decreased from 53.5 to 52.0, which ultimately led to the decline in the composite PMI to 50.4 from 51.9. Yet, no one shouts about the risks of a recession in Europe. On the contrary, they set the Old World as an example of stimulating economic growth through soft monetary policy. However, the results are somewhat different from those predicted in theory.
Meanwhile, the United States, where the Federal Reserve holds a completely wrong and destructive monetary policy, demonstrate just awful result as we are constantly talking to media propaganda and misinformation. What's more important is the index of service activity, which rose from 50.7 to 50.9. But even worse, the index of manufacturing activity has risen from 50.3 to 51.0, moving horribly in the opposite direction of recession. Hence, it is not surprising that the composite index of business activity has grown from 50.7 to 51.0. It is obvious that Jerome Powell will need to take urgent action on the worsening economic situation that the actual data has already shown a different result. Otherwise, all media campaigns and disinformation will look complete, empty windbags.
Composite Business Activity Index (United States):
Today, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. The only thing you can at least somehow pay attention to is the S&P/Case-Shiller index of housing prices in the United States, which by the way, its growth rate should increase from 2.1% to 2.2%. In other words, there is no reason to weaken the dollar. However, growth will be limited due to the not so important published data.
S & P / Case-Shiller (United States) Housing Price Index:
The Euro/Dollar currency pair pleased traders with a local cross as it has broken the psychological level of 1.1000, but in the end, it still formed a rollback to the previously traversed point. It is likely that a temporary fluctuation within 1.1066/1.1000, where it is necessary to work on the breakdown of boundaries.
The Pound/Dollar currency pair has steadily returned to the previously formed accumulation at 1.2430/1.2500, where it focused within the lower border. We can assume that the current stagnation will not last long. Also, it is worthwhile to carefully monitor the fixing of the points relative to the values of 1.2412 and 1.2460 as it is clear whether the accumulation will continue or the recovery process relative to the available coordinates.
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